Tuesday 30 April 2024

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Austria

 

First Thoughts:

Austria has been one of the fans' favorites the past three years with minimum returns in terms of actual results.

'We Will Rave' has all the elements to do well in theory with both constituencies and has a decent studio version but there are so many red flags there that just qualifying to the Final might be tricky.

I am not convinced that the song suits Kaleen and the pre-parties suggested that there are issues with the vocals as well.

Austria's running order is not bad in theory but the problem is that there is Greece and Switzerland before them and Armenia just a few songs after them plus the public vote magnets of the second half and suddenly Austria is the most vulnerable of the fast tempo entries.

Its current odds are still short and I do remember a similar approach to Halo back in '22 when it was trading odds on and still failed to qualify, not being in the Top-10 of public vote either.

If they make it to the Final, last place is a possibility.


Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 31/50


What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Qualification and then Bottom-5 in Final

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 20-50

F: J: 5-20 - PV: 0-20 - Tot: 5-40


What do I see in my crystal ball?

Austria not qualifying with another car crash live performance. Competition is high in this Semi - Final and comparisons will  be made.

Austria simply does not have enough to secure the qualification threshold.

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