Ukraine is still leading the board, entering the Final with the lowest price ever matched in the modern era (1.33). Currently is trading at 1.40.
Nothing swayed the Ukraine backers, not even the first half draw. Producers and EBU gave Ukraine slot #12 and you can interpret it in different ways.
Ukraine won the Semi-Final 100%, but numbers imply that the voting will not be a walk in the park, so EBU played a fair game and gave them a late slot. That is the most plausible explanation of all.
UK and Sweden are after the hot favourite trading at similar prices (11.00 vs 11.50). Sweden will be performing at slot #20 and UK at #22, both treated as the best entries of the second half.
Italy has drifted since last week, especially after the end of the Semi-Finals currently trading at 22.00, the same price with Spain, which reached 40.00 at one point in the week.
These is the solid Top-5 with the sixth favourite trading at 180 (Serbia, Netherlands)!
I have spent hundreds of hours this season trying to solve the riddle and find who the winner is.
There are valid points that could be made for all five entries. The truth is that all of them are vulnerable in some aspect, and this is the reason I believe that tonight we will have the most exciting voting since 2016.
Ukraine has been the favourite only because of the war happening there. Kalush Orchestra hasn't even won the national final. Stefania is a song that in a normal year would finish 8th-12th.
The narrative is that people and Juries will show their support voting for Ukraine. This is the leading force behind the shortest price ever available for the favourite.
That same narrative implies that the Televoting will be in record heights (Portugal 2017 - 376pts) and Ukraine will win with the biggest score ever.
The truth is that until the time that the votes will be revealed we can only speculate. And do not forget, there is the Jury voting before.
Again, in a normal year Ukraine would finish 12th-15th with the Juries. I am expecting them to finish way higher than that, but the big question is how many points they could get.
I am assuming that their Televote score will be in the 300-350 pts area. In that case, they will need 150-175 pts to secure the win. That translates to 4-4.5 pts on average from every Jury. It is not that high, and we can safely assume that there will be countries that will reward Ukraine some 12s and 10s. If that will be the case, then it is game over.
With a lower score, Ukraine will be heavily relying on the Televoting. And in that case EBU has made everything that is possible to reduce the Ukrainian handicap from the rest of the field.
All the Televoting magnets of the first half are near Ukraine (France #6, Norway #8, Italy #9, Spain #10, Netherlands #11). Ukraine will be the last in a sequence of strong entries that could all end up in Televoting Top-10.
After Ukraine there is a sequence of five low energy slow tempo songs, followed by Moldova, the entry that has the biggest Televoting potential in the second half.
Ukraine still has the upper hand, but 1.40 in a field of 25 entries has no value whatsoever.
Juries: 175+, Televoting: 350+ are the magic numbers for Ukraine.
Italy is currently fourth in odds. Rai shows in every way possible that they do not wish to host for a second time in a row. Add to that the first rehearsals when Mahmood and Blanco were not giving 100% and people started writing off Italy.
That could be the case, however I still think that Italy could be the one to dethrone Ukraine. Brividi is the entry that was charting most during the season. The numbers are always biased because of the Italian population and the popularity of San Remo, but they are still big.
Mahmood is the biggest name in the whole line up tonight, and coming back once more for the win, could propel Italy's televoting.
Italy has tried hard to crack the Juries in the last few years and has finally managed to score those 200 pts that are needed for Top-5 rankings. The staging is spectacular, and Jurors have no reason to punish Italy.
My current projection with Juries is 230-270 pts.
If Televoting reaches the 250-pts barrier, then Italy is in with a chance. This is where Mahmood's charisma and Blanco's popularity could kick in.
And do not forget that the market tends to underestimate Italy. That was the case in 2018 that no one saw their Televote score coming. That was also the case with Mahmood in 2019, when Italy was 4th-5th favourite and during the show their numbers exploded.
Italy does not need to win neither of the two constituencies to secure the win. At 23.00 there is value.
Juries 260+, Televoting 250+ is what Italy looking for.
Spain offers the best show in the night. It might be a bit off in the mood but for sure the public will go crazy. It has the biggest reaction in the arena and public will love it.
300 televoting points are achievable and then it all comes to Juries. Will they acknowledge Slo-Mo's quality in choreography and reward it or will they find it oversexualized?
If Spain is near the 200-pts margin with Juries, then anything could happen. Another entry that has value at 23.00.
Juries 200+, Televoting 300+ is the path to win for Spain.
Sweden was given the same slot that gave France the second-place last year. Coming after Moldova will cost them some televoting pts and Australia at #21, UK at #22 and Poland at #23, will cost them some serious Jury pts.
However, Sweden is a powerhouse with Juries and if they manage to win them with a score in the 275-300 pts area, then they are also in with a chance.
They will also need 200+ televote points and that is the most difficult part for Sweden. They have not reached that threshold since 2015 when they won.
The current price, 12.00 also has some value if you believe in Sweden's numbers.
Juries 275+, Televoting 225+ is what Sweden is aiming for.
UK is the biggest climber of the season. Started as a song that had potential for Top-10 and after the Eurojury results was upgraded to Top-4 and now is trending second after Ukraine. What a journey!
UK has the most difficult path to secure the win and is the big x-factor in televoting.
Everything points to a Jury win or Top-3 in worst case scenario. UK needs to be as close to that 300-pts margin as possible.
That means that UK would need approximately 200 pts in Televoting. And that is a big ask. Checking the split results since 2009, UK's best score was in 2011 with 166 pts and 2009 was the second time they have reached the 100-pts threshold (105). That's it!
Since 2012 the biggest televoting score UK has managed is 36 pts!
It is possible for a country with no previous good record to score high, but it is not something I would rely on.
Juries 325+, Televoting 175+ is the most suitable path for a UK win.
The best way to have a profit this year if you wish to bet on the Winners market, is to either lay Ukraine, or bet on all four other favourites.
The jury voting tonight will be the most exciting ever and that is a fact. If Ukraine struggles, the road is open for the rest. If Ukraine is near or in Top-5 then it might be over before it even started.
Whoever does the step up and performs better than expected will have the upper hand.
Currently I'm leaning towards an Italian or Spanish win.
Ukraine has the easier path to win however, followed by Italy and then Sweden.
I think I have covered the Winner's section so let's have a look at the whole line-up and my projections.
Czechia
The #1 slot have hurt their chances for a Top-15 finish. The last one that came from that slot was in 2016 (Belgium). Top -15 @ 1.96 is acceptable (Exchange, Smarkets)
Tv: 13th - Juries: 19th - Total: 16th
Estimated Points: 90/125 (Tv: 55/75 - Juries: 35/50)
Romania
The slot implies that Romania was saved by the Televoters Romanian diaspora. The matchup vs Germany (bet365) @1.33 is not great in value but very probable.
Tv: 18th - Juries: 22nd - Total: 22nd
Estimated Points: 50-85 (Tv: 30/50 - Juries: 20/35)
Portugal
The one that was sacrificed from EBU to minimize Ukraine's televoting power. There have been two cases in the recent past (Israel '15, Czechia '19) where the song finishing second in Semi-Final was given the slot #3. Top-15 @ 1.60 has value. (Exchange, Smarkets).
Top-10 @ 3.75 or more is also acceptable.
Match-up against Australia @ 1.72 as well (bet365)
Tv: 14th - Juries: 11th - Total: 12th
Estimated Points: 135-175 (Tv: 50/70 - Juries: 85/105)
Finland
Slot suggests that Finland has either struggled with both constituencies in Semi-Final or was saved by one! The only bet that value is finishing last @ 67.00 (William Hill).
Finland has finished last 10 times!
Tv: 21st - Juries: 23rd - Total: 24th
Estimated Points: 35-65 (Tv: 20/30 - Juries: 15/35)
Switzerland
Was saved by the Juries. In a wider field it will struggle but will get enough to avoid last place.
Tv: 25th - Juries: 13th - Total: 20th
Estimated Points: 70-90 (Tv: 5/15 - Juries: 65/85)
France
There was the potential for a Top-10 finish that was gone when the running order was revealed. Might struggle with Juries. If they finish in Top-10 with televoting they might have a chance for a Top-15 finish @ 1.69 (Exchange, Smarkets).
Slot #6 has a streak of 4 Top-15 finishes and 6/7 since 2014.
Tv: 11th - Juries: 24th - Total: 17th
Estimated Points: 80-115 (Tv: 70/90 - Juries: 10/25)
Norway
Norway has not lived to the hype of the pre-rehearsal season. Top-10 is still achievable, but I find no value @1.78.
Tv: 9th - Juries: 18th - Total: 11th
Estimated Points: 140-185 (Tv: 100/125 - Juries: 40/60)
Armenia
I might be overestimating this one, not because of its quality that is there, but because of its running order coming before a sequence of favourites. If diaspora and neighbours help, Top-15 @ 2.10 might pose some value.
Match-up against Finland @ 1.72 looks yummy! (bet365)
Tv: 15th - Juries: 16th - Total: 15th
Estimated Points: 95-135 (Tv: 45/65 - Juries: 50/70)
Italy
I have made my points earlier. Win @ 23.00 (Exchange, Smarkets) is a value bet. Top-4 finish over 2.00 is acceptable.
Tv: 4th - Juries: 2nd - Total: 1st
Estimated Points: 425-505 (Tv: 195/235 - Juries: 230/270)
Spain
Same with Italy. Spain has more value for Top-3/4 (3.00+, 2.25+)
Spain vs Sweden @ 2.62 (bet365) is part of my personal book as well.
Sweden in 2015 won from that slot.
Tv: 2nd - Juries: 6th - Total: 3rd
Estimated Points: 380-450 (Tv: 250/290 - Juries: 130/160)
Netherlands
The one that could break in the Top-5 performing well with both constituencies. It is offered @4.00 with most companies.
Finishing 8th or higher @2.00 (bet365) will be one of my tips for tonight.
The match-up against Norway @ 1.66 is a good option. (bet365)
Tv: 5th - Juries: 4th - Total: 6th
Estimated Points: 340-420 (Tv: 170/210 - Juries: 170/210)
Ukraine
There is nothing else to comment on Ukraine. No odds with any value.
Tv: 1st - Juries: 8th - Total: 2nd
Estimated Points: 410-480 (Tv: 300/340 - Juries: 110/140)
Germany
Will finish last, but on a 25 songs' field, there is no value at just doubling your money. Ukraine will suck all the energy out of it.
To finish 23rd or worse @ 1.28 is money in the bank (bet365)
Tv: 24th - Juries: 25th - Total: 25th
Estimated Points: 10-35 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 0/15)
Lithuania
Target is achieved, now is time to relax and enjoy. Lithuania will get enough to avoid Bottom-3/5 but this is it.
Tv: 16th - Juries: 20th - Total: 19th
Estimated Points: 75-110 (Tv: 45/65 - Juries: 30/45)
Azerbaijan
Secured a spot in the Final that is the best they could ask for. If for some reason they score high with Juries, Top-15 is within reach and @ 4.20 this is value!
Tv: 22nd - Juries: 12th - Total: 18th
Estimated Points: 85-115 (Tv: 15/25 - Juries: 70/90)
Belgium
Borderline qualifier that is relying on Juries, is never good news for a good result on the Final. Especially with all other slow-tempo entries in the mix.
Finishing Last @ 13.00 is a value bet. (bet365)
Tv: 23rd - Juries: 17th - Total: 23rd
Estimated Points: 55-85 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 45/65)
Greece
It has Bulgaria 2021 written all over it! Even the slot is the same. Top-3 in the Semi-Final most probably, will get a decent Jury score and with the help of some friends and neighbours is looking for a spot in Top-10.
No value on the current price though.
Tv: 17th - Juries: 7th - Total: 10th
Estimated Points: 160-210 (Tv: 40/60 - Juries: 120/150)
Iceland
Another entry that has already achieved its goal. Will get enough points to avoid last place.
Tv: 20th - Juries: 21st - Total: 22nd
Estimated Points: 50-85 (Tv: 25/40 - Juries: 25/45)
Moldova
I have underestimated Moldova's televoting power in my Semi-Final predictions. It has Ukraine 2021 potential and remains to be seen how Juries will treat it. The one that hurts Sweden's odds for the win.
Top-10 over 1.70 is free money in my opinion. For those who believe that Moldova can do it again, Top-5 @ 8.00 is acceptable (Exchange, Smarkets).
Tv: 3rd - Juries: 15th - Total: 8th
Estimated Points: 265-325 (Tv: 210/250 - Juries: 55/75)
Sweden
Everything was said above. My suspicion is that this could be the one from the Top-5 that could slip further down. France is the only podium in that slot since 2014...
Tv: 6th - Juries: 3rd - Total: 4th
Estimated Points: 380-450 (Tv: 160/200 - Juries: 220/250)
Australia
Running order will hurt any chance it had for a Top-10 finish unless it finishes in Top-5 with Juries which seems a long shot for me.
Tv: 19th - Juries: 9th - Total: 13th
Estimated Points: 125-160 (Tv: 25/40 - Juries: 100/120)
UK
It is now or never for Sam! Israel won from #22 in 2018 and Italy finished 2nd in 2019!
I am underestimating the Televoting score, but I must take in consideration UK's history.
Tv: 8th - Juries: 1st - Total: 5th
Estimated Points: 360-440 (Tv: 110/140 - Juries: 250/300)
Poland
Coming after UK is not great for Poland. If Juries reward him, the Polish diaspora will do the rest.
I do have a suspicion though that it might finish lower with Juries.
The match-up against Greece@ 1.72
Tv: 7th - Juries: 5th - Total: 7th
Estimated Points: 260-330 (Tv: 120/150 - Juries: 140/180)
Serbia
Serbia has made it and is my Swiss knife for the Final! I have it in Top-10, Best Balkan entry and to beat France in prices that would secure a nice profit. I have tipped the Best Balkan nine days ago @5.00 and is currently @ 2.00-2.25!
Friends and televoters will make sure that Serbia finishes in Top-10.
Tv: 10th - Juries: 10th - Total: 9th
Estimated Points: 180-220 (Tv: 90/110 - Juries: 90/110)
Estonia
The best possible slot for Estonia. It might increase their chances for a Top-10 result. However, with Serbia, Poland and UK before, televoting points which could secure that spot will be less.
For the 'Hopers' Top-10 over 3.50 is acceptable.
Tv: 12th - Juries: 14th - Total: 14th
Estimated Points: 120-160 (Tv: 60/80 - Juries: 60/80)
And for the OCDs here is the full list in order.
1. Italy: 425-505 (Tv: 195/235 - Juries: 230/270)
2. Ukraine: 410-480 (Tv: 300/340 - Juries: 110/140)
3. Spain: 380-450 (Tv: 250/290 - Juries: 130/160)
4. Sweden: 380-450 (Tv: 160/200 - Juries: 220/250)
5. UK: 360-440 (Tv: 110/140 - Juries: 250/300)
6. Netherlands: 340-420 (Tv: 170/210 - Juries: 170/210)
7. Poland: 260-330 (Tv: 120/150 - Juries: 140/180)
8. Moldova: 265-325 (Tv: 210/250 - Juries: 55/75)
9. Serbia: 180-220 (Tv: 90/110 - Juries: 90/110)
10. Greece: 160-210 (Tv: 40/60 - Juries: 120/150)
No comments:
Post a Comment